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Expert: 2015 Hurricane Season Could Be Least Active in Half-Century

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Hurricane Sandy takes aim at New Jersey. (Credit: CIMSS/University of Wisconsin)
Hurricane Sandy takes aim at New Jersey. (Credit: CIMSS/University of Wisconsin)

A team led by renowned tropical weather forecaster William Gray is predicting the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be the least active since the mid-20th century.

“It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall,” Gray’s team, from the University of Colorado, wrote in a report issued this week. “The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Still, the team said, coastal residents should prepare for hurricane season, which begins June 1, as they usually do.

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The forecast calls for seven named storms in 2015 (storms receive a name when they reach tropical storm status, with sustained winds of 39 m.p.h. or higher), three hurricanes and one major hurricane. Because of the overall low number of storms that will form, the chance of a storm making landfall is “well below average,” the forecast said.

The median number of hurricanes person season since 1981 is 6.5, with 12 named storms and and two major hurricanes (meaning they reach category 3, 4 or 5). Hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

The forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data, the report said. The full report is available online.


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  • DragonDad77

    So that means that this will be the worst year ever for hurricanes?

    • JW P

      We could start making odds on it.

      • JJones

        Jimmy the Greek said take the odds and bet heavy ..

  • bayboat65 .

    I thought global warming increased hurricane numbers and intensity?

    • JW P

      It does and has. I think this meteorologist is making a poor prediction.

      • Frank Rizzo

        Who cares what you think…

      • JW P

        I could say the same thing to you and your endless rants about white victimhood.

      • Frank Rizzo

        All day long you make these posts. Do you have any friends…or do you just have nothing to do but put your useless thoughts and opinions on here.

      • JW P

        Stop posing questions to yourself. That’s a common symptom of schizophrenia. You should seek professional psychiatric help.

      • Frank Rizzo

        Swing and a miss clown…Get a life and quit fighting with people on here.

      • JW P

        Again, I’ll just assume you’re referring to yourself.