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Joaquin – Storm Discussion/Predictions

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  • Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12



    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 191446
    TCDAT1

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
    1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

    Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with
    a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep
    convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus
    clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The
    initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model
    analyses.

    The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker
    dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the
    models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a
    continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day
    or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model
    consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity.

    Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
    continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
    coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
    National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Blake