Home Joaquin – Storm Discussion/Predictions

Joaquin – Storm Discussion/Predictions

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  • Atlantic



    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 081450
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Depression Nate Discussion Number 17
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
    1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

    The center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward
    over central Alabama. Moderate westerly shear has caused most of
    the deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east
    and northeast of the center, and surface observations show that
    Nate has continued to rapidly weaken. Wind gusts to tropical-storm
    strength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the
    Florida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained
    tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt
    tropical depression. Nate is expected to become a remnant low on
    Monday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by
    frontal system. The intensity foreast keeps the wind speed around
    30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase
    along the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on
    Monday when the post-tropical low approaches that area.

    Nate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to
    northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the
    next 24 to 36 hours. The cyclone is forecast to turn
    east-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal
    system.

    This is the last NHC advisory on Nate. Heavy rainfall associated
    with Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the
    southern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the
    next day or so. Future information on Nate system can be found in
    Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
    at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and
    on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
    continue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S.


    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
    totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
    Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
    southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
    flash flooding in these areas.

    2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
    bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
    the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
    will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

    3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of
    the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon.

    4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along
    portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products
    issues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
    additional information.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 08/1500Z 33.1N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    12H 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    24H 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    36H 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

    $$
    Forecaster Brown