Home Joaquin – Storm Discussion/Predictions

Joaquin – Storm Discussion/Predictions

[ads1]

  • Atlantic



    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 312034
    TCDAT1

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number 20
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
    500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

    Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has
    become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central
    convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud
    features have become better defined. The scatterometer data show
    hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that
    the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous
    overpass. The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65
    kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy
    wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far
    northeastern Atlantic.

    The initial motion is now 030/30 kt. Oscar is now well embedded in
    the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should
    move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward
    speed.

    Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the
    size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

    This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane
    Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
    Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
    header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
    at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 31/2100Z 39.3N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    12H 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Beven