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Joaquin – Storm Discussion/Predictions

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  • Atlantic Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18



    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 230237
    TCDAT1

    Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    Although a low-level swirl can still be seen in infrared satellite
    imagery, this feature has continued to lose definition. A recently
    arriving partial ASCAT-A overpass shows that the circulation has
    become more elongated, and Peter lacks a well-defined center. In
    addition, the system has not produced any organized deep convection
    in quite some time. The cloudiness and convective activity that has
    been occuring over the western Atlantic has been located along a
    trough axis well northeast of the decaying circulation center. As a
    result, Peter no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
    and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial
    intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with the ASCAT data. The
    remnants of Peter are expected to remain within an area of strong
    upper-level westerly winds, and further weakening should occur over
    the next day or two.

    The system has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 335/4 kt.
    A weakness in the low-level ridge should allow the remnants to turn
    northward tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through
    the end of the week.

    This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information
    on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
    by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
    header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0300Z 22.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
    12H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

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