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Joaquin – Storm Discussion/Predictions


  • Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Discussion Number 17

    WTNT41 KNHC 062033

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Discussion Number 17
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
    500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

    Alex has not produced any deep convection near its center since last
    night. It's surface circulation has also become elongated and
    ill-defined. Based on these factors, Alex is now classified as
    post-tropical and this will be the last advisory. The initial
    intensity is set at 50 kt, assuming a little weakening has occurred
    since this morning, though this is uncertain due to a lack of recent
    ASCAT or surface observations.

    Alex is moving quickly toward the east-northeast. Another
    non-tropical low or trough is forecast to develop to the northeast
    of Alex tonight. While there is quite a bit of variability in the
    details, all global models forecast that Alex and the other low
    will merge within the next 24 h or so, so the NHC forecast now
    shows dissipation at that time. The baroclinic system that results
    from that merger is expected to strengthen and could produce
    hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic by midweek. For more
    information, please see forecasts from the National Weather Service
    Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
    FZNT01 KWBC, and online at


    INIT 06/2100Z 35.5N 60.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 07/0600Z 37.6N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    Forecaster D. Zelinsky


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